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<origin>World Resources Institute</origin>
<pubdate>2011</pubdate>
<title>Future thermal stress (2050) (grid)</title>
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<pubdate>2011</pubdate>
<title>Burke, L., K. Reytar, M. Spalding, and A. Perry. Reefs at Risk Revisited. (Washington, DC, USA: World Resources Institute, 2011).</title>
<onlink>withheld</onlink>
</citeinfo>
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<ftname>therm_2050</ftname>
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<descript>
<abstract>Grid reflects the estimated frequency of severe thermal stress (NOAA Bleaching Alert Level 2) for decade 2050. Values are a percent (as integer) of the decade in which the grid cell would experience severe thermal stress under an IPCC "business-as-usual" emissions scenario. The specific indicator used in the model was the frequency (number of years in the decade) that the bleaching threshold is reached at least once. Frequencies were adjusted to account for historical sea surface temperature variability. Values range from 0 to 100. See the Reefs at Risk Revisited report and technical notes for more information.</abstract>
<purpose>The global indicators developed by the Reefs at Risk Revisited project enable comparative analyses of threats to coral reefs on many scales, and support conservation priority-setting. The Reefs at Risk indicators are a simplification of human activities and complex natural processes.</purpose>
<supplinf>The model relies on available data and predicted relationships but cannot capture all aspects of the dynamic interactions between people and coral reefs. The threat indicators gauge current and potential risks associated with human activities. A strength of the analysis lies in its use of regionally consistent data sets to develop globally consistent indicators of human pressure on coral reefs. However, the model is not perfect, and omissions and other errors in the data sets are inevitable.</supplinf>
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<datacred>Adapted from Donner, S. 2009. "Coping with Commitment: Projected Thermal Stress on Coral Reefs under Different Future Scenarios." PLoS ONE 4: e5712 for use in the Reefs at Risk Revisited project.</datacred>
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<idAbs>&lt;DIV STYLE="text-align:Left;"&gt;&lt;DIV&gt;&lt;P&gt;&lt;SPAN&gt;Grid reflects the estimated frequency of severe thermal stress (NOAA Bleaching Alert Level 2) for decade 2050. Values are a percent (as integer) of the decade in which the grid cell would experience severe thermal stress under an IPCC "business-as-usual" emissions scenario. The specific indicator used in the model was the frequency (number of years in the decade) that the bleaching threshold is reached at least once. Frequencies were adjusted to account for historical sea surface temperature variability. Values range from 0 to 100. See the Reefs at Risk Revisited report and technical notes for more information.&lt;/SPAN&gt;&lt;/P&gt;&lt;/DIV&gt;&lt;/DIV&gt;</idAbs>
<idPurp>The global indicators developed by the Reefs at Risk Revisited project enable comparative analyses of threats to coral reefs on many scales, and support conservation priority-setting. The Reefs at Risk indicators are a simplification of human activities and complex natural processes.</idPurp>
<idCredit>Adapted from Donner, S. 2009. "Coping with Commitment: Projected Thermal Stress on Coral Reefs under Different Future Scenarios." PLoS ONE 4: e5712 for use in the Reefs at Risk Revisited project.</idCredit>
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